The worldwide economic, social and political repercussions of the ongoing war in Ukraine demonstrate how interconnected the modern world is. But, as the ramifications of the war play out, it is increasingly evident that close ties sometimes come at a price. Take rising wheat prices around the world as an example.

Ukraine is a major food—including wheat, corn and sunflower oil—producer for 400 million people internationally, most of whom live in the poorest regions of the planet. But over the past two and a half months, Russian aggression in Ukraine has been disrupting vital food exports and, as a result, the world faces a tangible risk of food insecurity.

Apart from food-related repercussions, the war gave rise to a monumental shift in global fossil fuel supply patterns, exposing the growing need for a switch to sustainable energy sources. Notably, those Western European countries that remain highly dependent on Russian oil and gas today are diversifying their energy imports in order to avoid future political pressure from the Russian government.

In light of such negative outcomes of global interdependence, learning the right lessons from the war and the ensuing international reaction can help overcome the negative impact of the ongoing invasion as soon as possible, avert future armed conflicts and improve international cooperation going forward.

Lesson 1:
Violating the integrity of a sovereign nation will not be tolerated by the international community.

“It is often said that Vladimir Putin doesn’t think Western Europe is willing to pay the price to defend freedom,” said Simon Evenett, a professor of international trade and economic development at the University of St. Gallen. According to Evenett, it is too early to conclude whether the international community has passed Putin’s test. Positive shifts in global collaboration against the blatant attack on Ukrainian sovereignty are apparent, though: Over 40 national governments declared the Russian invasion unacceptable and backed their words with economic sanctions.

On the other hand, according to Lisa Yasko, member of the parliament of Ukraine and a speaker at the 51st St. Gallen Symposium, preemptive international assistance could have helped to avoid the war altogether. “The international cooperation that we had for many years is not under threat—it’s actually quite dysfunctional,” Yasko said. “We need to make a real change in such organisations as the United Nations and the Council of Europe. We need to have real tools that can protect peace and security.”

On the other hand, according to Lisa Yasko, member of the parliament of Ukraine and a speaker at the 51st St. Gallen Symposium, preemptive international assistance could have helped to avoid the war altogether. “The international cooperation that we had for many years is not under threat—it’s actually quite dysfunctional,” Yasko said. “We need to make a real change in such organisations as the United Nations and the Council of Europe. We need to have real tools that can protect peace and security.”

Lesson 2:
Collaboration between governments is significantly stronger in the political domain than in international trade and prevention of global food crises.

“As Egypt and Lebanon struggle to sustain necessary imports of wheat from Ukraine and Russia, Indonesia is banning palm oil exports to protect the domestic market from rising prices. To make things worse, the disruption of fertilizer imports from Ukraine, Russia and Belarus due to the war will begin to have real consequences by the second half of 2022, according to Evenett.

Cross-country collaboration will be crucial in the months to come as part of the effort to combat food shortages as the poor and vulnerable continue to suffer from the actions of the powerful. Western politicians seem to have reached a consensus about the attack on democracy and sovereignty, but the looming threat of food insecurity is at least as menacing and perhaps much more palpable.

Lesson 3:
Weaponisation of interdependence may limit globalisation.

Globalisation is often regarded as a great opportunity for business and people, especially younger generations. “So much mutual understanding is developed as people cross borders, study and party abroad,” Evenett said. “This helps tie us all together.”

But globalisation also creates interdependence, which powerful political actors or parties may utilise to exert their influence over others, as in the case of Russia’s recent threats to cut gas exports to Bulgaria and Poland.

So does war in Ukraine spell the end of an era of globalization? Evenett said he predicts that the world is likely experiencing “selective fragmentation of the global economy” rather than a full-fledged deglobalisation. In some realms, including food and energy security, governments may seek to limit their dependence on foreign parties. “I see an evolution of globalisation, rather than deglobalisation,” Evenett said.

In a similar vein, Oksana Matiias, CEO of Teach for Ukraine and Leader of Tomorrow at the 51st St. Gallen Symposium, said that global collaboration motivated governments to reduce their dependence on Russian energy sources. However, according to Matiias, this does not signal complete erosion of globalisation. Instead, it may represent a necessary step on the road to better globalisation, where power imbalance is counterbalanced by global collaboration to avoid abuse of interdependence by powerful political actors.

Lesson 4:
Reception of Ukrainians in Western Europe contrasts with the treatment of refugees from the Middle East,

Africa and other parts of the globe.

Evenett says Ukrainians fleeing the war westwardly were met with “quite incredible generosity,” whereas hostile treatment of Syrian, Palestinian, Yemeni and Afghani refugees, among others, remains commonplace on the continent. Whether this contrast represents a long-awaited shift in European attitude toward immigrants or simply the latest manifestation of racial prejudices is another open question and an opportunity to learn an additional lesson: wars can happen anywhere, including Europe, and people fleeing from death and destruction should be accommodated regardless of their skin colour or citizenship.

While there are many lessons we can learn from global response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, one conclusion seems clear: Global issues require global solutions given the contemporary interdependent context, since seemingly distant local perturbations will often reverberate across borders.

That’s where the St. Gallen Symposium comes in. “I think that now it’s time for rethinking the world order,” Yasko said. “And such countries as Switzerland and platforms like this symposium can really make a change.”