Executive Summary

Geopolitical shocks can no longer be seen as rare disruptions—they have become part of the new normal. Companies must embed geopolitical thinking into their core strategies and build maximum flexibility into their structures and operations. Developing a “geopolitical muscle” means creating strategies that can adapt swiftly to changing global conditions. This is particularly urgent as global supply chains come under increasing strain from great-power tensions, protectionist policies, and cyber threats. Transparency, regional hubs, and robust scenario planning are essential tools to build resilience. In sales and distribution, agility and rapid response capabilities are equally critical to navigating sanctions, market volatility, and shifting trade dynamics. Ultimately, companies that embrace change, invest in resilience, and transform geopolitical risk into strategic opportunity will gain a lasting competitive edge.

Insights from the Executive Roundtable as part of the 54th St. Gallen Symposium

100 days into Donald Trump’s second presidency: what shifts has the new administration already set in motion, and what scenarios could emerge for Europe and the world? How can strategic scenario planning serve as a vital steering tool for organizations to anticipate and mitigate risks at an early stage, but also identify opportunities? These were the core questions of the Executive Roundtable. In two workshops – held in English and German – top executives discussed geopolitical dynamics affecting their companies and developed action points to boost resilience and flexibility. The workshops were part of the 54^th St. Gallen Symposium from 6 to 8 May 2025, which brought together senior and emerging leaders from business, politics, academia, and civil society for open, cross-generational dialogue. This year’s theme: “Shifting Global Power”.

The Executive Roundtable on “100 Days of Trump – How Strategic Scenario Planning Can Help Navigate Geopolitical Uncertainty” was facilitated by the geopolitical strategy consultancy Agora Strategy Group. In a keynote speech, Dr. Timo Blenk, Senior Partner and CEO of Agora Strategy Group, analyzed current geopolitical challenges for companies, with a special focus on the changing geopolitical landscape and the changes under Trump’s administration.

In three breakout groups, moderated by three experts from Agora Strategy – Dr. Timo Blenk, Dr. Elli-Katharina Pohlkamp and Christina Schaefer – the executives discussed geopolitical shifts for “Procurement & Production”, “Sales & Distribution” and “Financials”. Each group identified key challenges and emerging opportunities.

Challenges & Opportunities

Procurement & Production: Global supply chains are under pressure from rising geopolitical tensions, the trade dispute between the US and China, a high dependence on individual raw material suppliers and increasing cyberattacks. Local content requirements, protectionist policies, talent shortages, industrial espionage, IP theft and the preferential treatment of local companies (increased absence of a level playing field!) further complicate operations. Still, opportunities exist in automation and robotics for production, European talent development, and targeted investments.

Sales & Distribution: Persistent unpredictability – from sanctions and currency volatility to cyber risks and recession fears – requires agile strategies. Yet, there is room for growth through dynamic pricing, new investment opportunities, and the emergence of new trade areas or free trade agreements.

Regulation & Finances: Challenges include stalled investments, data sovereignty issues, and regulatory complexity. At the same time, emerging markets (e.g. India, the Middle East, Latin America) and sectors like healthcare offer growth potential. EU initiatives on digital and economic sovereignty can also benefit companies by reducing dependence on global markets.

Recommendations for action

Participants developed the following key action points to help companies mitigate geopolitical risks and capitalize on emerging opportunities:

Procurement & Production: To mitigate geopolitical risks, companies should enhance transparency across their entire supply chain and invest in supplier development, resilience, and quality. Building regional hubs and maintaining strategic stockpiles can help absorb short-term disruptions, supported by the consistent use of scenario planning. Dual sourcing should be pursued where feasible, while portfolios should shift toward high-margin, innovative segments. Accelerating time-to-market and safeguarding intellectual property were also identified as strategic imperatives.

Sales & Distribution: Companies are advised to establish task forces to enable agile responses, monitor their geopolitical exposure, and actively identify new sales opportunities. Adjusting pricing strategies and expanding the use of scenario planning can help navigate shifting market conditions. Strategic investment reallocations, relocation of hubs when necessary, strengthening of ecosystems, and the formation of new partnerships were further key recommendations to ensure resilience and growth.

Regulation & Finances: Participants emphasized the importance of adapting product and service offerings to reflect geopolitical developments and fostering cross-functional collaboration in geopolitical analysis to overcome siloed thinking. Strengthening relationships between business leaders and policymakers was also seen as crucial. Finally, embedding scenario planning for extreme events into financial strategies was recommended to enhance long-term preparedness.