As the world shifts towards a more multipolar landscape, the implications for democracy are profound and complex. In a year marked by significant electoral upheaval, citizens are increasingly rejecting the status quo, raising critical questions about the future of governance and the preservation of democratic values. 

by Lindiwe Mazibuko

The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born”. So said Antonio Gramsci, the founding member and one-time leader of the Italian Communist Party during the 1920s. I take a rather more optimistic view of global affairs, echoing that of the Indian author and activist Arundhati Roy, who, inher seminal collection of essays, War Talk, wrote: “A new world is not only possible, she is on her way. On a quiet day, I can hear her breathing.”

The 2024 Electoral Landscape: A Rejection of the Status Quo

As we enter the final weeks of 2024 – a year in which 68 national elections have already taken place across the globe—a clear and stark trend has emerged in international politics: the emphatic rejection of the status quo.

Indeed, the winds of change have swept away more political incumbents than ever before, with John Burn-Murdoch at the Financial Times reporting that ruling parties in major elections in 2024 were ‘given a kicking by voters’ – registering some of the most significant declines in vote shares since records began. These leaders, through a combination of their own fault and contextual misfortune, have presided over a world that is as chaotic and fragmented as I can remember. In many places, such as the UK, the US, Mexico, Botswana, Indonesia, and Senegal, these winds of change have brought in new leaders, new majorities, new parties, and new alliances. All with new visions for the future.

So, as citizens of this new age, how can we make sense of such a radical transformation of global governance architecture? How do we chart a course forward without dismantling some of the hard-fought gains of years gone by? To me, the answer is to reformulate the world according to a new image – one of greater balance and multipolarity but with a reaffirmed commitment to democracy, its values, and ethical standards.

Multipolarity in Action: The Rise of New Voices

If the late 20^th century was defined by a power struggle between two poles, the Soviet Union and the United States, the early years of the 21^st century have witnessed the gradual emergence of a more balanced, ‘multipolar’ system. I am confident that the amplification of new voices in the international arena – including Brazil, India, China, South Africa, Turkey, Nigeria, Vietnam, and Saudi Arabia, to name a few – has the potential to bring greater equilibrium to an increasingly antiquated and outmoded global governance framework.

For too long, alliances and institutions forged in the dying embers of World War II have served selective interests and aspirations. The US approach to an international ‘rules-based order’ has proven to be narrow and self-serving at best, dangerously hypocritical at worst. And given the archaic political interests and preoccupations of the men and women who occupy the highest offices in Washington and Moscow, the need for diverse, modern geopolitical voices has never been greater.

The prevailing expectation is that United States President Donald Trump’s impending return to the White House will renew some of his favoured ‘America First’ policies. Having withdrawn from various international pledges and engagements during his first term in the Oval Office, the smart money is on Trump paying little attention to what Chatham House calls the ‘global common good or interventions that uphold it’. Although their congressional majority is narrow, the GOP will assume control of the Senate and the House, making policies easier to enact for the only US president ever to have been impeached (twice). Similarly, Russia’s continued violations of international law in Ukraine illustrate the dangers of not having proper measures of accountability and oversight in place in our global institutions.

Democracy vs. Authoritarianism: A Crucial Crossroads

As I see it, the rise of a greater number of diverse actors in the international arena can promote fairer, more equitable international collaboration based on just and democratic values. Today, the countries in BRICS represent around 45% of the world’s population and 35% of the global GDP—more even than the G7 in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP). Such socio-economic might will soon translate into a more robust presence in the UN Security Council and the Bretton Woods Institutions. 

However, rising middle powers must not fall into the trap of viewing democratic norms and standards as separate from, or even antithetical to, economic aspirations. As I have touched on here, the two go hand in hand. Scores of studies have demonstrated that countries governed under democracy are less prone to conflict, regularly yield higher economic growth, and are better equipped to tackle climate change and the other defining crises of our time. As such, the onus is on our political leaders to remain faithful to the key principles of democracy: free and fair elections, freedom of speech, the rule of law, and restraints on executive power. Lasting prosperity will only be achieved if it is built upon a foundation of proper democratic accountability and responsible stewardship. The Westminster Foundation for Democracy reported in 2023 that the ‘success of authoritarian development models has led to a growing willingness to question the need for democratic politics’. To this, attention must be paid. The temptation to sacrifice the norms and standards of self-determination, human rights, equality and freedom of voice must never be entertained

President Lula’s recent decision to exercise Brazil’s right of veto and block Venezuela from joining BRICS is an excellent yardstick of the standards required moving forward. Nicolas Maduro’s ‘victory’ in the 2024 Venezuelan elections has been shrouded in allegations of electoral fraud and manipulation. Receipts from the country’s polling machines demonstrate that the main opposition candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, won in a landslide. Gonzalez has since released a statement that he was coerced into signing a letter recognising Maduro as the rightful president in order to be granted safe passage to Spain. Lula’s veto (and its acceptance by other BRICS members) demonstrates the vigilance required to ensure that democratic values in BRICS are not forsaken in pursuit of broader economic expansion. As global alliances and power dynamics take on new forms, we must not let our ethical standards and commitments to democracy change with them.

Lindiwe Mazibuko is a South African public leader, writer, and academic fellow. She was the first black woman in South African history to be elected Leader of the Opposition in Parliament. Ms Mazibuko is the co-founder and CEO of Futurelect, a non-partisan organisation supporting a new generation of political and public sector leaders in Africa. Ms Mazibuko was an elected representative in South Africa’s National Assembly until May 2014, when she resigned from active politics in order to return to higher education. A graduate of the University of Cape Town and the Harvard Kennedy School of Government, she has served as a fellow of the Institute of Politics at Harvard University and of the Stellenbosch Institute for Advanced Study in South Africa. Currently, Ms Mazibuko is a World Economic Forum Young Global Leader as well as a Fisher Family Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science & International Affairs.